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Market Commentary
What’s happening around the world is compounding the UK’s low-growth storyThe Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has lowered its predictions for UK growth in its latest Economic Forecast. It is expected that UK GDP will grow by 1.1% in 2026 and 0.9% in 2027, down from the CBI’s previous projections of 1.3% and 1.5% respectively. These revised statistics take into consideration the economic uncertainty caused […]
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Market Commentary
The near-term outlook is now dominated by heightened uncertainty surrounding conflict in the Middle EastAccording to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK economy unexpectedly flatlined in January, showing no monthly growth. This stagnation follows growth of 0.1% in December and 0.2% in November. According to a Reuters poll, economists had expected to see a 0.2% month-on-month increase. The service sector showed no growth […]
Market Commentary
The situation remains highly fluid and adds to an already uncertain global economic environmentLast week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a statement about the Middle East conflict, which began on 28 February after US-Israeli air strikes on Iran. At the start of the year, the IMF had forecast strong global GDP growth of 3.3% in 2026, but the outlook is now more uncertain. The IMF commented on […]
Market Commentary
Spring Forecast 2026On Tuesday 3 March, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves delivered her Spring Forecast, unveiling updated economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The Chancellor opened her statement by saying, “This government has the right economic plan for our country,” which was “even more important in a world that in the last few […]
Market Commentary
Inflation fell markedly in JanuaryThe latest inflation data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for January shows the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell to its lowest level since last March. In the 12 months to January, CPI increased by 3.0%, down from 3.4% in the 12 months to December, in line with expectations from a Reuters poll of […]
Market Commentary
Improving the outlook now depends on restoring business dynamismThe latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that the UK economy expanded by 0.1% in the three months to December 2025. This modest growth follows falls of 0.1% recorded in both the three months to November and October 2025. The main driver of GDP growth was the production sector, which grew […]
Market Commentary
We now think that inflation will fall back to around 2% by the springIn its first meeting of the year, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to retain Bank Rate at 3.75%. The MPC was split over the decision, with five members opting to hold the rate and four voting to reduce it to 3.5%. A rate reduction was last made in December 2025, so many analysts were […]
Market Commentary
China is a vital player on the global stage and it is vital that we build a more sophisticated relationshipKeir Starmer visited China last week, becoming the first British Prime Minister to meet with President Xi Jinping in eight years. Britain’s relationship with China has been strained over the last decade, but Starmer is one of many European leaders currently seeking to rebuild ties. US President Trump’s policies are causing some uncertainty in Europe; […]
Market Commentary
Europe needs to adjust to the new security architecture and realities that we are now facingLast week, global leaders met in Davos for the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026. Talks were focused on rising geopolitical and economic tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the fast-moving situation in Greenland. On Wednesday 21 January, President Trump delivered a special address, touching on US economic growth, immigration and Greenland. He stated that […]
Market Commentary
Any decision about the future of Greenland belongs to the people of GreenlandKeir Starmer spoke from Downing Street on Monday morning in response to President Trump’s intention to take control of Greenland because of its strategic Arctic position and mineral wealth. The Prime Minister said Trump was “completely wrong” to threaten tariffs against countries opposing the move, urging for the issue to be resolved through calm discussions […]
Market Commentary
This is a government that wants what’s best for ScotlandOn 13 January, Scottish Finance Secretary Shona Robison delivered her draft Budget, outlining key tax and spending plans for the forthcoming financial year, running from 1 April 2026 to 31 March 2027. The Scottish government usually announces its Budget in December but due to the late timing of Rachel Reeves’ Budget on 26 November, decided […]
Market Commentary
We still think rates are on a gradual path downwardDuring the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) final meeting of 2025 on 18 December, the members voted to reduce Bank Rate to 3.75%, though it was a close call. Five of the nine members voted to reduce the rate, while four wished to retain it at 4%. The reduction was widely expected following inflation data which […]
Market Commentary
We are determined to defy forecasts on growthThe latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that the UK economy shrank in October, contrary to expectations. Economists had anticipated that UK GDP would grow by 0.1% in the three months to October, but the data shows it contracted by 0.1%. The slowdown in GDP growth was partly driven by a […]