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The broader picture remains one of subdued momentumThe latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that the UK economy exceeded expectations in February, with monthly growth of 0.5%. This is the largest monthly rise since January 2024. However, the data was collected before the Middle East conflict, so experts warn that the outlook is much weaker. The UK economy […]
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Market Commentary
A resilient world economy is being testedThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank kicked off their spring meetings in Washington this week, with finance ministers, central bankers, academics and private sector executives from across the globe attending. During the week, topics for discussion will centre around the global economy, international issues, financial stability, poverty reduction and the growth outlook. […]
Market Commentary
Housing market activity likely to softenThe latest figures from Nationwide show that UK house price growth regained momentum in March 2026, with an annual rise of 2.2%. This represents a significant increase compared to February, when annual growth was 1%. While it is positive to see the recent uptick in house price growth, Nationwide noted that the short-term outlook is […]
Market Commentary
A brutal inflation surge loomsThe latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show the annual rate of inflation remained at 3% in the 12 months to February – based on data collected before the Middle East conflict. Interestingly, motor fuels made the largest downward contribution to inflation, with prices falling by 4.6% annually in the 12 months […]
Market Commentary
Whatever happens, our job is to make sure inflation gets back to its 2% targetLast week, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%. Before the war broke out in Iran, many experts had been expecting to see a reduction this month, but concerns about the conflict’s economic impact have put any potential cuts on hold. All members of the MPC voted to keep rates […]
Market Commentary
The near-term outlook is now dominated by heightened uncertainty surrounding conflict in the Middle EastAccording to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK economy unexpectedly flatlined in January, showing no monthly growth. This stagnation follows growth of 0.1% in December and 0.2% in November. According to a Reuters poll, economists had expected to see a 0.2% month-on-month increase. The service sector showed no growth […]
Market Commentary
The situation remains highly fluid and adds to an already uncertain global economic environmentLast week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a statement about the Middle East conflict, which began on 28 February after US-Israeli air strikes on Iran. At the start of the year, the IMF had forecast strong global GDP growth of 3.3% in 2026, but the outlook is now more uncertain. The IMF commented on […]
Market Commentary
Spring Forecast 2026On Tuesday 3 March, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves delivered her Spring Forecast, unveiling updated economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The Chancellor opened her statement by saying, “This government has the right economic plan for our country,” which was “even more important in a world that in the last few […]
Market Commentary
Inflation fell markedly in JanuaryThe latest inflation data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for January shows the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell to its lowest level since last March. In the 12 months to January, CPI increased by 3.0%, down from 3.4% in the 12 months to December, in line with expectations from a Reuters poll of […]
Market Commentary
Improving the outlook now depends on restoring business dynamismThe latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that the UK economy expanded by 0.1% in the three months to December 2025. This modest growth follows falls of 0.1% recorded in both the three months to November and October 2025. The main driver of GDP growth was the production sector, which grew […]
Market Commentary
We now think that inflation will fall back to around 2% by the springIn its first meeting of the year, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to retain Bank Rate at 3.75%. The MPC was split over the decision, with five members opting to hold the rate and four voting to reduce it to 3.5%. A rate reduction was last made in December 2025, so many analysts were […]
Market Commentary
China is a vital player on the global stage and it is vital that we build a more sophisticated relationshipKeir Starmer visited China last week, becoming the first British Prime Minister to meet with President Xi Jinping in eight years. Britain’s relationship with China has been strained over the last decade, but Starmer is one of many European leaders currently seeking to rebuild ties. US President Trump’s policies are causing some uncertainty in Europe; […]
Market Commentary
Europe needs to adjust to the new security architecture and realities that we are now facingLast week, global leaders met in Davos for the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026. Talks were focused on rising geopolitical and economic tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the fast-moving situation in Greenland. On Wednesday 21 January, President Trump delivered a special address, touching on US economic growth, immigration and Greenland. He stated that […]