“We’re not out of the woods yet”

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to retain Bank Rate at 4% during its September meeting last week, following a 0.25 percentage point cut in August. This outcome was in line with expectations, as last week’s data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) found that inflation remained at 3.8% in August.

The MPC outline that they remain ‘focused on squeezing out any existing or emerging persistent inflationary pressures, to return inflation sustainably to its 2% target in the medium term.’ They expect twelve-month CPI to increase slightly in September, before falling towards the 2% target thereafter.

The cost of food and non-alcoholic drinks increased for the fifth consecutive month in August, increasing by 5.1% year-on-year – the highest rate for 19 months. This spike is likely due to bad weather affecting harvests, plus increases in the minimum wage and National Insurance Contributions, prompting supermarkets to raise prices.

Restaurants and hotels made a large upward contribution to inflation, with prices rising by 3.8%. The largest downward contribution came from transport due to a slowdown in air fares.

With overall inflation at the highest level since January 2024, it’s not surprising that the MPC voted by a majority of seven-to-two to maintain Bank Rate. Andrew Bailey, Bank of England (BoE) Governor, commented on the decision, “Although we expect inflation to return to our 2% target, we’re not out of the woods yet so any future cuts will need to be made gradually and carefully.”

The BoE also decided to slow the rate at which it sells off UK government bonds (known as gilts), which were bought during the financial crisis and the pandemic to support the economy. The BoE had been reducing the amount of debt it holds by about £100bn a year, but this rate will slow to £70bn over the coming year to minimise the impact on financial markets.

Meanwhile, across the pond…

Last Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points for the first time this year, after pressure from President Trump to lower the cost of borrowing. The following day, US stock markets reached record highs.

Starmer and Trump sign historic ‘Tech Prosperity Deal’

Donald Trump made his second state visit to the UK last week, where he and Keir Starmer signed the first US-UK tech agreement. The ‘Tech Prosperity Deal’ promises to strengthen ties in AI, quantum computing and nuclear power, and is part of a wider plan to boost the relationship between the US and UK.

US firms have reportedly pledged £150bn in UK investments, which is predicted to create tens of thousands of jobs. With £90bn coming from alternative asset manager Blackstone, it has not been decided how the money will be spent. Microsoft will invest £22bn over the next four years, which will go towards AI infrastructure and operations. Plus, Google has pledged £5bn over the next two years to fund the opening of its data centre in Hertfordshire.

The UK government hopes that this pact will bring ‘new healthcare breakthroughs, clean homegrown energy, and more investment into local communities and businesses in Britain and the United States.’

A decline in consumer confidence

Consumer confidence dropped across the board in September, according to GfK’s index. The overall index score slipped by two points month-on-month to -19. Expectations for the general economic situation went down to -32, five points worse than September 2024. The measure for personal finances over the last 12 months decreased by three points to -7, but is two points better than a year ago.

Consumer Insights Director at GfK, Neil Bellamy, said, “There’s an autumnal chill in the air this month”, adding “the August 7th decrease in interest rates does not appear to have provided any obvious boost to the financial mood of consumers or drawn attention away from day-to-day cost issues.”

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All details are correct at time of writing (24 September 2025)