News & Insight
Market Commentary
Improving the outlook now depends on restoring business dynamismThe latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that the UK economy expanded by 0.1% in the three months to December 2025. This modest growth follows falls of 0.1% recorded in both the three months to November and October 2025. The main driver of GDP growth was the production sector, which grew […]
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Market Commentary
We now think that inflation will fall back to around 2% by the springIn its first meeting of the year, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to retain Bank Rate at 3.75%. The MPC was split over the decision, with five members opting to hold the rate and four voting to reduce it to 3.5%. A rate reduction was last made in December 2025, so many analysts were […]
Market Commentary
China is a vital player on the global stage and it is vital that we build a more sophisticated relationshipKeir Starmer visited China last week, becoming the first British Prime Minister to meet with President Xi Jinping in eight years. Britain’s relationship with China has been strained over the last decade, but Starmer is one of many European leaders currently seeking to rebuild ties. US President Trump’s policies are causing some uncertainty in Europe; […]
Market Commentary
Europe needs to adjust to the new security architecture and realities that we are now facingLast week, global leaders met in Davos for the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026. Talks were focused on rising geopolitical and economic tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the fast-moving situation in Greenland. On Wednesday 21 January, President Trump delivered a special address, touching on US economic growth, immigration and Greenland. He stated that […]
Market Commentary
Any decision about the future of Greenland belongs to the people of GreenlandKeir Starmer spoke from Downing Street on Monday morning in response to President Trump’s intention to take control of Greenland because of its strategic Arctic position and mineral wealth. The Prime Minister said Trump was “completely wrong” to threaten tariffs against countries opposing the move, urging for the issue to be resolved through calm discussions […]
Market Commentary
This is a government that wants what’s best for ScotlandOn 13 January, Scottish Finance Secretary Shona Robison delivered her draft Budget, outlining key tax and spending plans for the forthcoming financial year, running from 1 April 2026 to 31 March 2027. The Scottish government usually announces its Budget in December but due to the late timing of Rachel Reeves’ Budget on 26 November, decided […]
Market Commentary
We still think rates are on a gradual path downwardDuring the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) final meeting of 2025 on 18 December, the members voted to reduce Bank Rate to 3.75%, though it was a close call. Five of the nine members voted to reduce the rate, while four wished to retain it at 4%. The reduction was widely expected following inflation data which […]
Market Commentary
We are determined to defy forecasts on growthThe latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that the UK economy shrank in October, contrary to expectations. Economists had anticipated that UK GDP would grow by 0.1% in the three months to October, but the data shows it contracted by 0.1%. The slowdown in GDP growth was partly driven by a […]
Market Commentary
The global economy has proved more resilient than expected this yearThe Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has released its latest Economic Outlook, setting out projections for global growth over the coming years. According to the report, global economic growth is expected to slow from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026 due to higher tariff rates temporarily impacting trade and investment. However, once […]
Market Commentary
This Budget will bring down inflation and provide immediate relief for familiesThe Chancellor delivered her second Budget last Wednesday, which included a number of tax and spending measures, estimated to raise £26bn in taxes by 2029/30. In her opening remarks, Rachel Reeves said “This Budget will bring down inflation and provide immediate relief for families,” before adding that she was choosing to deliver “a Budget for […]
Market Commentary
Price pressures are gradually subsidingThe latest figures from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) show that inflation fell to 3.6% in October, the lowest level in four months. While this is down slightly from 3.8% in September, it remains significantly above the Bank of England’s target of 2%. The largest downward contribution to inflation came from housing and household […]
Market Commentary
This month’s Budget is a make-or-break moment for businessThe Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released the final GDP figures ahead of the Autumn Budget. The data shows that economic growth was slower than expected in Q3 as GDP increased by only 0.1%, a slowdown when compared with 0.3% in the previous quarter. Analysts had predicted growth of 0.2%, so this lower figure […]
Market Commentary
We still think rates are on a gradual path downwardsLast week, the Bank of England (BoE) voted to hold Bank Rate at 4% for the second consecutive meeting. It was a tight decision, with five members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voting to retain the rate, while the remaining four favoured a 0.25% reduction. In October, the annual inflation rate remained at […]